Safe Withdrawal Rate Calculator
How much you can take from a portfolio each year, adjusted for inflation, and whether it lasts as long as you need.
Portfolio balance through retirement
Withdrawals rise with inflation each year, so spending power stays constant. This models a steady return; real markets do not cooperate, and a severe decline in the first few years of retirement does far more damage than the same decline later. That sequence-of-returns risk is why the 4% rule was set conservatively rather than at the average historical return.
The 4% rule says a retiree can withdraw 4% of the starting portfolio in year one and raise that amount with inflation each year afterward, with a high chance of the money lasting 30 years. This simulates exactly that mechanic: withdrawals rise with inflation while the portfolio grows at your assumed return.
Frequently asked questions
Where did the 4% rule come from?
From studies of historical US market returns, notably William Bengen's 1994 research and the later Trinity study, which tested 30-year retirements across many starting years. Four percent was the highest rate that survived nearly every historical period tested.
Does the 4% rule still work?
It remains a reasonable planning anchor, though critics note it was derived from a period of strong US returns and that lower expected returns or longer retirements argue for a lower rate. Retirees planning 40 or more years often use 3% to 3.5%.
Should I adjust withdrawals in bad years?
Flexibility helps considerably. Skipping the inflation increase after a down year, or trimming spending temporarily, meaningfully improves the odds compared to withdrawing mechanically regardless of what markets do.
Does this include taxes?
No. Withdrawals from traditional retirement accounts are taxable income, so a $40,000 gross withdrawal delivers less to spend. Model your spending need on an after-tax basis, or raise the withdrawal to cover the tax.
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Calculators model hypothetical outcomes from the inputs you provide. They are informational only, not financial, investment, tax, or legal advice.